MBS Day Ahead: Is it ‘Game On’ For a Rally?

By matthew graham posted To: MBS Commentary A few days ago, I laid out a bullish long-term case for bond markets. I could probably do something similar for a bearish case, but when it comes to bearish risks, it’s easier if we forget about the longer-term and focus on short-to-medium-term trends.

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MBS Day Ahead: Retail Sales Takes a Swing Before Next. In the day just past, bonds managed to add modestly but meaningfully to a 2.5-day rally that’s acted to keep them in a consolidation.

Granted, by the time most of you read this, NFP will already be out, but I’m not as interested in the initial reaction as I am in how things play out over the rest of the day. It’s not until. NFP.

MBS Day Ahead: Where We Were, Where We Are, And Where We Might Be Going Posted Oct 9, 2018. 2009-2013 was an unprecedented time for the US bond market. It benefited not only from the initial blast of the Great Recession and the sluggish recovery that followed but also from the ongoing blast of Fed bond buying and ultra-low rate policy.

Mortgage Rates In 2017 Are Headed Where? The average mortgage rate in the 1990s was 8.1 percent, and rates didn’t fall below 5 percent until 2009. So for buyers who can make the math work, buying a home is likely still an investment.

MBS Still lag Treasuries into the rally, but each of them have ratcheted to better and better territory following each piece of economic data. Fannie 4.0 MBS are up half a point on the day at 101-09 currently. Rate sheets should be stronger this morning, obviously, but lenders are likely to remain conservative while volatility remains elevated.

Posted To: MBS Commentary September has been a long month for the bond market as rates quickly trudged back up to levels that aligned with our more pessimistic assumptions for 2018. With strong average hourly earnings to start the month and several other upper tier economic reports coming in at the best levels in many years, it wasn’t too hard to reconcile the weakness.

All told, the rebound from late 2018 has traversed well over 100bps, making this one of the 8 biggest moves in the past 20 years and making 2019 the first true "rally year" since 2014. In the day ahead, we’re left to ponder whether all that strength is merely a correction to the overdone sell-off in 2018 or confirmation that the US will inevitably join Japan and Europe in a long, slow grind toward (and below, at times) zero percent rates. More immediately, we’re left to consider.