Mortgage rates affect the long-term cost to finance a home purchase. At the same time, interest rates represent risk for mortgage lenders. Lower rates are associated more often with low-risk.
More Articles. Mortgage interest rates are higher than Treasury yields because mortgages are riskier than Treasury bonds. The risk is that some homeowners get into financial difficulty and default on their mortgage obligations. The difference, or spread, between Treasury yields and mortgages interest rates is the risk premium.
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When purchases of bonds increase, the associated yield falls, and so do mortgage rates. But when the economy is expected to do well, investors jump into stocks, forcing bond prices lower and pushing the yield (and interest rates) higher. 10-Year Bond Yield vs. Mortgage Rates – 10-year bond yield up, mortgage rates up.
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There are other issues to consider about how rising rates will affect housing. Some are from market pundits and some are from economic views. Mortgage rates tend to track the direction of the 10-year.
Bond prices affect mortgage interest rates because bonds and mortgages compete for the same low-risk investors who want a fixed return. Treasury Yields Only Affect Fixed-Rate Home Loans Treasury yields only affect fixed-rate mortgages.
1. Why do mortgage rates (tend to) increase when the published treasury bond rate increases? I’m going to come back to this, because it requires a lot of building blocks. 2. What’s the math behind a bond yield increasing (price falling?) This gets complicated, fast.
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